At last, we are seeing the light at the end of the COVID tunnel… It’s exciting to think of getting back to normal – especially seeing family we miss so much – but we still want to open our communities up safely. Experts warn that we still need to be careful to avoid a fourth wave. This week New York announced that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks and that they likely have more risk of being run over in the parking lot than contracting COVID-19 in a grocery store when fully immunized. Images of unmasked people returning to sidewalk cafes generated some excitement for many of us.
In Canada, with our alternative strategy to delay the second shot, the scenario might be a little different. We likely need to flip to “normalcy” more gradually. Everyone who wants it will have partial immunity (the first shot) by the end of June or sooner -- a decent 80% or more for most -- and that will start making a difference while we line up for our "top up" (family lingo for a second drink...).
While many of us are looking for solid guidance with experts telling us what is safe to do and when, it’s somewhat of a game of numbers... and "guesstimates" of how protected we are in different situations.
Considerations...
It makes sense to me that each geographical area should make recommendations for opening based on the local situation. And each of us will need to estimate our risk -- and that of others -- in each situation. As I see it, several factors need to be considered:
Is there community spread of the virus in the area, especially cases that cannot be traced to the source?
What percentage of the population has been vaccinated? One shot or both?
Which activities involve less risk, and can be started sooner? Indoors or out? How many people? How well do you know them (whether they're vaccinated, how much risk they've exposed themselves to, etc.)?
On a personal level, what is your tolerance for risk? Do you have underlying health problems, a lowered immune response (due to medication or an autoimmune disease) or contact with family that is at higher risk?
Although vaccines can prevent serious disease and hospitalization by 100%, none can completely prevent us from catching the virus (the best vaccines have around 95% protection). The risk of a mild/asymptomatic case of COVID and of passing the virus on to someone who has not been vaccinated or is at higher risk is thought to be very low but not shown to be zero, as yet.
Canadian experts are recommending that we delay re-opening until 75% of the population have received their first shot, and that we will still need to be cautious to reduce the chance of a fourth wave this summer. It’s a balance between trying to help the economy and saving lives, of course. But what is a life worth? As tragic as it is to see businesses close, it is worse to hear the numbers of lives still being lost.
There isn’t a play book for the ideal way to reopen our communities. We’ll only know in hindsight how cautious we need to be to avoid a resurgence of cases (and deaths). I guess we’ll have more information to base decisions on, if and when the next pandemic happens.
Decisions affect lives
In my province (New Brunswick, approximate population 800,000), communities were put in shutdown as soon as community spread was detected, and kept that way until every case could be traced and isolated. This has kept our loss of life to 43 people, as of yesterday... each one a tragic loss. In provinces that delayed closing for several weeks when they reach this point, the numbers were much worse. Ontario, for example, has had over 500,000 cases and 8,000 deaths in a population of close to 15 million. To compare the 2 provinces, that’s about 10 times the death rate per 100,000 population (5.4 in NB vs 53.3 in ON). The governments of several Canadian provinces are currently being criticized for delaying necessary shutdowns for several weeks longer than they should have. And delaying needed action to control a pandemic is turning out to harm the economy, not help it, as businesses closures are extended to gain control of the virus spread.
The future?
In the longer view, experts tell us that COVID-19 and its variants will very likely become a seasonal disease, much like the flu. There will always be those who are not vaccinated for various reasons, and it will be a long time until every country has good vaccination rates (if ever…). It’s not certain how high the vaccination rate needs to be to achieve herd immunity (the level of immunity that will prevent the disease from spreading through a community) but experts talk about 70 to 80% vaccination rates. With vaccine hesitancy (resistance to vaccination) as high as 40% in some countries, this suggests that outbreaks will continue to occur. And we know that, the more the virus spreads, the greater the chance that mutations, resistant to the vaccine, will be created.
Perhaps it will become like malaria, where you’ll want to check the disease rate in an area and whether it's a resistant strain before you travel there. And maybe you'll want to renew your immunity with a booster a few weeks before travel or take a drug with you to prevent or treat an infection if you are exposed, presuming portable forms are developed.
We’ll likely want to protect ourselves, at least during “COVID season”, by wearing masks on public transportation (especially planes) and perhaps also in public places, as they do in Asian countries that have experienced this level of risk from viral infections in the past. It may become "rude" not to wear a mask if you have sniffles or a cough, even if it's "just a cold". Given the non-existent flu season this year, we may want to use masks to protect against that virus during flu season too.
By the way, CTV News reports that Canada is on track to pass the US in percentage immunized (albeit with one shot rather than two, following the UK, India and other countries with limited supply of vaccine). Perhaps we should start up a friendly competition for “best immunization rate”… 😊
Anyway, these are my musings this week after reading the news. My hubby and I will be 4 weeks post-shot-#1 as you read this… hence my focus on how things are changing. But, after more than a year of taking precautions against exposure to this nasty virus, I’m wondering whether we will ever completely return to “normal”. Hopefully our new normal will be a better one and, having learned from this devastating pandemic, we’ll be more prepared in the future…
References:
Businesses welcome back customers as New York reopens - New York Times
Do we still need to wear a mask outdoors? CNN Health
Canada’s COVID-19 vaccination rate likely to surpass US this week – CTV News
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