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  • Writer's pictureJeannie Collins Beaudin

Why didn’t we see this coming?



So many of us are surprised at what is happening these days with the rapid spread of the new coronavirus and so many deaths. But scientists have known for years that this was likely to happen…they said it wasn’t “if” a pandemic would occur but “when” that was in question. The Spanish Flu of 1918 was a good example of how a virus could spread when no one was watching.

If fact, we discussed the possibility of a pandemic at least 15 years ago when I was on the New Brunswick pharmacy regulatory board. We put in place a mechanism to enable quick licensing of retired pharmacists to continue providing basic pharmacy services to the public, should too many of those on the front lines become ill.

Again, when I was learning about viral infections as part of my training to give injections and to teach other pharmacists how to do immunizations, I learned that there are two basic types of viruses…those that spread easily and those that cause severe infections in the lungs. Fortunately, most viruses are one type or the other. But when a virus combines the ability to spread from person to person easily with the ability to cause severe illness, it becomes a candidate for causing a dangerous pandemic. And when it’s a completely new virus, no one has immunity. The new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is one of these (fortunately) rare ones. And we are quickly seeing and feeling its effects.

Reading about science...

One problem is that too many of us don’t hear what our scientists are saying. Science is often hidden behind pay walls instead of being openly shared, charging subscription fees or $35 per article to read the evidence. And, too often, the results of studies are written in scientific lingo that the average person can’t understand.

Sometimes, science news is shared by non-scientists who don’t translate the information accurately, causing confusion and misunderstanding. An example is the current stockpiling of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, based on news reports that they might prevent or treat COVID-19. Experimenting with potent drugs based on rumour and hearsay can be dangerous. There have been reports of patients who have ended up in hospital after taking chloroquine based on sketchy news reports. As yet, no proof exists that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine work, that either is safe to use against this virus, or what dose should be used. Scientists have organized methods to test drugs safely and thoroughly before they are used by sick patients. Perhaps our scientists, themselves, should write summaries of their research work that can be clearly understood by all and are accessible to the public and news media.

Believing the facts...

For some, being part of a social group with certain beliefs keeps minds closed to the facts. Humans are social beings and, when faced with a choice of being included in a group or standing up for the facts we have been shown, many need to stay with their social group, finding ways to “prove” the facts must be wrong. We’ve all seen videos of teenagers partying on beaches, who have convinced themselves the warnings don’t apply to them... people crowded in parks, convinced that only those over 80 need to worry...

It’s also harder to make choices that you know will cost you money. But governments, listening to the scientists, are making the tough decisions that will save lives. Doctors and scientists are telling us what is likely to happen if we don’t change our behaviours quickly to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus infection. We are starting to see the results of our slow early reactions.

But we are displaying a similar lack of attention to what scientists are saying is going to happen as a result of climate change. We certainly need to focus on following the advice of experts right now to avoid exposure to this virus but, hopefully, we are learning a good (if costly) lesson. We need to heed the advice of experts who warn us of potential world problems.

In spite of the difficulties in making changes when a problem isn’t yet affecting our daily lives, it is much less costly and “inconvenient” to prevent problems than it is to fix them after they occur. And prevention, wherever it can be applied, can save lives and prevent suffering. Forgive me for going off on a bit of a tangent, but one of my pet peeves is the “war on cancer” – while it would be wonderful to find a cure for all cancers, many could be prevented. We need more research into causes of diseases like cancer and better strategies to prevent them. This would extend lives, prevent suffering and save a lot of money that could be used to better everyone’s lives.

Occupying ourselves during isolation...

You know, it’s interesting how science fiction—the product of people’s imagination—can sometimes predict the future… I’m not talking about zombies, of course, but, just as they foresaw landing on the moon, sci-fi writers have imagined various scenarios where disease could disrupt society. Some of these imagined disaster movies and books, like Contagion and Andromeda Strain, have resurged in popularity, as movie fans compare the sci-fi version to the current crisis.

Spoiler alert… Andromeda Strain has a happy ending with quick action taken by government (I read it last year) but I haven’t seen Contagion yet. Maybe I’ll watch it this evening, just to see how the writer’s imagined crisis compares to what is happing now…

Or, to pass the time while self-isolating to reduce the magnitude of this crisis, maybe we can learn about the next potential one…climate change. I found a list of the best (and potentially most accurate) shows, as recommended by The Climate Reality Project (click here). Just like cancer and virus infections, it’s better and easier to prevent environmental damage than it is to try to fix it after it’s occurred… and costs less in money and lives to do it sooner rather than later.

But if watching a scary movie isn’t right for you right now… perhaps a phone call or video chat with family or friends (very easy with FaceTime, Messenger or other chat apps) and a feel-good novel (maybe a cozy mystery or romance?) might be just the things to pass the time and stay in touch with loved ones.

What are you doing to occupy yourself during this time of isolation? Or are you one of the many on the front lines we are so thankful for, working hard to help protect us? Post a comment below!

References/Further reading:

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Mind – James Clear

Must See Movies About Climate Change – The Climate Reality Project

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